Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 89188.822718 94077.998579 98963.848388 104209.357808 109678.161995 115208.230621 121219.469185
2025-05-25 80878.166306 88345.831338 96015.557837 104471.138784 113520.909859 122905.564081 133362.505190
2025-06-01 75651.686417 84946.116602 94699.147786 105674.869773 117660.550220 130329.695100 144711.470996
2025-06-08 70641.250128 81206.509558 92496.848228 105424.248609 119779.930676 135195.999843 152965.113824
2025-06-15 67719.939315 79437.672497 92156.390399 106934.899287 123580.032079 141692.934985 162837.344329
2025-06-22 64838.004794 77471.075945 91378.875786 107754.712216 126434.278835 147002.216917 171284.201140
2025-06-29 61909.372370 75256.369708 90145.203888 107892.660037 128374.433625 151171.599562 178362.528049
2025-07-06 59259.230991 73208.328875 88961.987377 107955.947651 130114.239420 155023.824638 185014.568464
2025-07-13 57913.728942 72593.120572 89355.910199 109773.408048 133821.722225 161094.430922 194202.671180
2025-07-20 56543.450723 71864.832192 89545.800562 111290.332036 137134.068443 166685.537749 202838.335755
2025-07-27 54945.957168 70783.430470 89247.677799 112168.165287 139647.437664 171318.407994 210351.171971
2025-08-03 53028.560378 69232.288018 88315.085778 112221.457982 141127.689750 174701.038949 216376.203153
2025-08-10 51294.040336 67865.602213 87578.297385 112498.768917 142885.052952 178445.527578 222898.272173
2025-08-17 49575.139669 66458.230225 86740.519051 112609.731720 144411.939021 181904.084240 229091.167020
2025-08-24 48530.158250 65851.175479 86849.476594 113851.030469 147294.429641 186986.355343 237251.357486
2025-08-31 46815.605284 64334.020358 85773.504860 113576.321737 148279.260154 189751.123497 242604.118248
2025-09-07 46092.503627 64053.861245 86219.769175 115179.001553 151570.917082 195323.992324 251392.884195
2025-09-14 45075.494520 63354.925618 86104.444870 116049.247154 153936.115865 199761.793970 258810.921273
2025-09-21 43787.043397 62258.369016 85444.441755 116195.649105 155370.142393 203041.110944 264808.057400
2025-09-28 42530.057272 61162.521626 84748.556643 116262.837311 156678.628821 206150.830249 270595.996468
2025-10-05 42141.939773 61203.720495 85509.282109 118192.743871 160349.078001 212212.813769 280083.135333
2025-10-12 41640.580489 61072.428257 86029.928931 119803.247464 163613.420261 217781.025322 288986.585716
2025-10-19 40882.535988 60568.642261 86041.108165 120735.122262 166000.847873 222252.308649 296536.166037